51-factor NFL projection model

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AFI Performance — 2026 Week 5
Weekly results and Season to Date. Every eligible stored projection counts.
This Week
Straight-Up 11–1 91.7%
ATS 0–0 —
O/U 0–0 —
Season to Date
Straight-Up 52–24 68.4%
ATS 37–25–2 59.7%
O/U 28–32 46.7%
View Complete AFI Results →
Public AFI Record

Every eligible projection. Publicly graded.

AFI reports Straight-Up, Against the Spread and Over/Under results from legitimate stored pre-lock or pre-kickoff snapshots. Losses count. Pushes are shown separately. Missing historical snapshots are never recreated after the fact.

Transparent record · No cherry-picking
2026 Regular Season — Season to Date
The primary public AFI record. Updated as eligible regular-season games are completed and graded.
Straight-Up
52–24 · 68.4%
76 eligible graded projections
ATS
37–25–2 · 59.7%
64 eligible graded projections · 2 pushes
O/U
28–32 · 46.7%
60 eligible graded projections
Historical Results
2026 Preseason Results
Preserved for transparency, but kept separate from the regular-season record.
Straight-Up
17–14 · 54.8%
ATS
7–5 · 58.3%
O/U
6–5 · 54.5%
AFI Transparency

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AFI is more than a final percentage. Explore some of the actual personnel evidence and data coverage behind the matchup model.

This Week's Free Pick · Factor #3

Offensive Line Continuity

See the actual offensive linemen, comparable depth-chart observations, continuity scores and official AFI factor edge behind this week's Free Pick.

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All 32 NFL Teams

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See AFI's current active, practice/development and reserve personnel coverage, plus the broader roster history retained for continuity and roster-change intelligence.

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Why AFI Calls Them Projections

AFI Projections, Not Guesses or Gut Feelings.

Every AFI projection is calculated from available football data and AFI’s 51-factor model — with the factor-by-factor reasoning available to see.

How AFI Is Built

Site built with AI assistance. Game projections driven by NFL football data.

Where AI fits inAI has been used as a development tool in building AFI — helping design, code, test and refine the platform and its analytical systems.

Where the projections come fromWeekly AFI projections are produced by AFI's programmed 51-factor model using imported football data. The model evaluates the available evidence, applies the defined factor logic and weights, and stores the resulting projection and factor-by-factor explanation.

51calculated matchup factors
Up to 16weekly NFL matchups
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1.46M+performance records from 2,825 players since 2023
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These completed examples show AFI projections that correctly identified the straight-up winner. Open any game to see the projection layout, probability, model details and the complete 51-factor “Show Me Why” analysis.

Regular Season · Week 5 · 2026
Completed Example 1 Regular Season Week 5
San Francisco 49ers
SF
@
Seattle Seahawks
SEA
FINAL: SF 32 - SEA 29 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
San Francisco 49ers
52.4% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up San Francisco 49ers
Projected Score 22.6 - 19.3
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense San Francisco 49ers -0.147 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 56.9% versus 44.6%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Seattle Seahawks 0.026 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 46% of red-zone possessions versus 48.2% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Neutral 0.000 Both teams have the same number of rest days: 7.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Seattle Seahawks 0.042 The away team has the greater travel burden: 705 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Neutral 0.000 Neither team has a relative time-zone travel advantage.
27 Consecutive Road Games Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing its second or later consecutive road game.
28 Home Field Advantage Seattle Seahawks 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Temperature data is not available yet.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Wind data is not available yet.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Precipitation data is not available yet.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 20 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Outdoor venue. The game is exposed to weather, with any temperature, wind or precipitation impact evaluated by the corresponding environment factors.
34 Head Coach San Francisco 49ers -0.150 The away head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Mike Macdonald.
35 Coaching Continuity San Francisco 49ers -0.060 Kyle Shanahan is in Year 10 - Elite Long-Term Continuity with the away team, compared with Mike Macdonald in Year 3 - Established Continuity with the home team. The away team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Jason Myers and Eddy Pineiro as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Michael Dickson and Corliss Waitman as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Neutral 0.000 No current point spread is available for this game. Factor #38 remains neutral.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 Both an opening spread and current spread are required for Factor #39. Line movement remains neutral.
40 Recent Team Form San Francisco 49ers -0.120 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 5-0, recency-weighted margin 12.5, form score 8.5. Home recent record: 3-1-1, recency-weighted margin 7.0, form score 3.8. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.488 and away opponent win percentage is 0.503. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity San Francisco 49ers -0.250 The away team has the stronger quarterback-continuity profile. Away continuity score is 100.0% versus 33.3% for the home team. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 3 for the away team. The home team shows a recent quarterback change. Factor #46 favors the away team.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar defensive-lineup continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 100.0% and away continuity score is 98.3%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #47 advantage. The home team retains 8 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 10 of 10. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 0.
48 Returning Starters Seattle Seahawks 0.120 The home team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Home returning-starter rate is 76.9% versus 51.9% for the away team. The home team returns 20 of 26 established starters, while the away team returns 14 of 27. Factor #48 favors the home team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 2 Regular Season Week 5
Detroit Lions
DET
@
Arizona Cardinals
ARI
FINAL: DET 45 - ARI 21 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Detroit Lions
50.5% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Detroit Lions
Projected Score 30.9 - 27.2
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Detroit Lions -0.053 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 53% versus 48.6%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Detroit Lions -0.076 The away defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 47% of red-zone possessions versus 53.3% allowed by the home defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Arizona Cardinals 0.050 Home team has a rest advantage: 7 days since its previous game versus 6 days for the away team.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Arizona Cardinals 0.102 The away team has the greater travel burden: 1694 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Arizona Cardinals 0.090 The away team crosses 3 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games Arizona Cardinals 0.030 The away team is playing its 2nd consecutive road game, creating a greater road-schedule burden than the home team.
28 Home Field Advantage Arizona Cardinals 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor temperature does not materially affect play.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor wind does not materially affect play.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor precipitation does not materially affect play.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 1070 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. The game is protected from normal outdoor weather effects, so roof status is neutral between the two teams.
34 Head Coach Detroit Lions -0.050 The away head coach, Dan Campbell, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Mike LaFleur.
35 Coaching Continuity Detroit Lions -0.090 Dan Campbell is in Year 6 - Highly Established with the away team, compared with Mike LaFleur in Year 1 - New Staff with the home team. The away team receives a coaching-continuity advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Chad Ryland and Jake Bates as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Blake Gillikin and Jack Fox as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Neutral 0.000 No current point spread is available for this game. Factor #38 remains neutral.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 Both an opening spread and current spread are required for Factor #39. Line movement remains neutral.
40 Recent Team Form Detroit Lions -0.120 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin -1.3, form score -0.7. Home recent record: 1-4, recency-weighted margin -9.1, form score -6.2. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.526 and away opponent win percentage is 0.517. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 33.3% and away continuity score is 33.3%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team. Both teams show a recent quarterback change.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Arizona Cardinals 0.040 The home team has the stronger defensive-lineup continuity profile. Home continuity score is 96.5% versus 88.3% for the away team. The home team retains 10 of 10 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 10 of 10. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 0. Factor #47 favors the home team.
48 Returning Starters Detroit Lions -0.080 The away team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Away returning-starter rate is 60.0% versus 36.0% for the home team. The home team returns 9 of 25 established starters, while the away team returns 15 of 25. Factor #48 favors the away team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
Completed Example 3 Regular Season Week 5
Denver Broncos
DEN
@
Los Angeles Chargers
LAC
FINAL: DEN 23 - LAC 17 AFI Projection Result: WIN
Very Low · AFI Straight-Up Projection
Denver Broncos
51.3% AFI Win Probability
Straight-Up Denver Broncos
Projected Score 23.9 - 18.8
Point Spread / ATS Separate AFI projection style
Over / Under O/U
Show Me Why — View All 51 Stored Factors
# Factor Edge Score Why
1 Quarterback Performance Neutral 0.000 Quarterback performance data is not available yet.
2 Quarterback Under Pressure Neutral 0.000 Quarterback-under-pressure evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
3 Offensive Line Continuity Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line continuity evidence is currently even between the teams.
4 Pass Protection Neutral 0.000 Pass-protection evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
5 Run Blocking Neutral 0.000 Run-blocking evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
6 Rushing Offense Neutral 0.000 Rushing-offense data is not available yet.
7 Passing Offense Neutral 0.000 Passing-offense data is not available yet.
8 Third Down Offense Neutral 0.000 Third-down offense data is not available yet.
9 Red Zone Offense Denver Broncos -0.077 The away offense has the stronger red-zone touchdown rate: 47.3% versus 40.9%.
10 Offensive Turnover Risk Neutral 0.000 Offensive-turnover risk evidence is currently even between the teams.
11 Pass Defense Neutral 0.000 Pass-defense data is not available yet.
12 Run Defense Neutral 0.000 Run-defense data is not available yet.
13 Pass Rush Neutral 0.000 Pass-rush data is not available yet.
14 Defensive Takeaways Neutral 0.000 Defensive-takeaway evidence is currently even between the teams.
15 Third Down Defense Neutral 0.000 Third-down defense data is not available yet.
16 Red Zone Defense Los Angeles Chargers 0.032 The home defense has the stronger red-zone performance, allowing touchdowns on 35.8% of red-zone possessions versus 38.5% allowed by the away defense.
17 Starting QB Availability Neutral 0.000 Starting-quarterback availability evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
18 Offensive Line Injuries Neutral 0.000 Offensive-line injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
19 Skill Position Injuries Neutral 0.000 Skill-position injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
20 Defensive Injuries Neutral 0.000 Defensive injury evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
21 Roster Changes Neutral 0.000 Roster-change evidence is not available yet; the factor remains neutral.
22 Rest Days Neutral 0.000 Both teams have the same number of rest days: 6.
23 Short Week Neutral 0.000 Neither team is playing on a short week.
24 Bye Week Rest Neutral 0.000 Neither team is coming off a bye week.
25 Travel Distance Los Angeles Chargers 0.050 The away team has the greater travel burden: 837 miles versus 0 miles for the home team.
26 Time Zone Change Los Angeles Chargers 0.030 The away team crosses 1 time zone(s), compared with 0 for the home team.
27 Consecutive Road Games Los Angeles Chargers 0.030 The away team is playing its 2nd consecutive road game, creating a greater road-schedule burden than the home team.
28 Home Field Advantage Los Angeles Chargers 0.050 Home team receives the standard home-field advantage.
29 Temperature Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor temperature does not materially affect play.
30 Wind Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor wind does not materially affect play.
31 Rain / Snow Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. Outdoor precipitation does not materially affect play.
32 Altitude Neutral 0.000 Stadium elevation is 130 feet and is not high enough to create a meaningful altitude factor in the current AFI model.
33 Roof / Indoor Conditions Neutral 0.000 Indoor/dome venue. The game is protected from normal outdoor weather effects, so roof status is neutral between the two teams.
34 Head Coach Denver Broncos -0.150 The away head coach, Sean Payton, has a current AFI coaching-experience advantage over Jim Harbaugh.
35 Coaching Continuity Neutral 0.000 Jim Harbaugh is in Year 3 - Established Continuity with the home team and Sean Payton is in Year 4 - Established Continuity with the away team. Their current-team coaching continuity is similar enough that AFI assigns no advantage.
36 Kicking Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed Cameron Dicker and Wil Lutz as the kickers, but kicking-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #36 remains neutral.
37 Punting Neutral 0.000 AFI has confirmed J.K. Scott and Jeremy Crawshaw as the punters, but punting-performance metrics are not available yet. Factor #37 remains neutral.
38 Point Spread Neutral 0.000 No current point spread is available for this game. Factor #38 remains neutral.
39 Point Spread Movement Neutral 0.000 Both an opening spread and current spread are required for Factor #39. Line movement remains neutral.
40 Recent Team Form Denver Broncos -0.180 The away team has the stronger recent-form profile. Away recent record: 3-2, recency-weighted margin -1.7, form score 0.1. Home recent record: 0-5, recency-weighted margin -8.6, form score -7.7. Factor #40 favors the away team.
41 Strength of Schedule Neutral 0.000 The teams have faced similarly difficult schedules. Home opponent win percentage is 0.499 and away opponent win percentage is 0.498. The difference is not large enough to create a Strength of Schedule advantage.
42 Division Matchup Neutral 0.000 This is not a divisional matchup, so Factor #42 is neutral.
43 Season / Game Stage Neutral 0.000 This game is classified as Regular Season. The stage is recognized with high confidence, but game stage by itself does not favor either team. Factor #43 remains neutral.
44 Preseason Roster Usage Neutral 0.000 This is not a preseason game. Factor #44 does not apply and remains neutral.
45 Playoff / Elimination Pressure Neutral 0.000 This is an ordinary regular-season game without late-season playoff-pressure context. Factor #45 remains neutral.
46 Quarterback Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar quarterback-continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 33.3% and away continuity score is 33.3%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #46 advantage. The home team has used the same expected starting quarterback for 1 comparable snapshot(s), versus 1 for the away team. Both teams show a recent quarterback change.
47 Defensive Lineup Continuity Neutral 0.000 The teams have similar defensive-lineup continuity profiles. Home continuity score is 97.8% and away continuity score is 97.8%. The difference is not large enough to create a Factor #47 advantage. The home team retains 8 of 8 expected defensive starters, while the away team retains 8 of 8. Recent defensive starter changes: home 0, away 0.
48 Returning Starters Denver Broncos -0.040 The away team has the stronger returning-starter profile. Away returning-starter rate is 73.1% versus 64.0% for the home team. The home team returns 16 of 25 established starters, while the away team returns 19 of 26. Factor #48 favors the away team.
49 Turnover Differential Neutral 0.000 Turnover-differential evidence is incomplete. Factor #49 remains neutral.
50 Penalty Differential Neutral 0.000 Penalty evidence is incomplete. Factor #50 remains neutral.
51 Time of Possession Differential Neutral 0.000 Time-of-possession evidence is incomplete. Factor #51 remains neutral.
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